Dbacks Make the Playoffs - 2023

One time in Dbacks history they were in the playoffs two years in a row. After winning the World Series of Baseball in 2001, they were again a playoff team in 2002. In 2023, the Dbacks again returned to the World Series and as of September 1, 2024 they have an estimated 88% chance of getting back into the playoffs this year. Below, I look back at September of the 2023 season to see how they made it into the playoffs last year.

Figure 1. 2023 National league wildcard race. Probabilities data from FANGRAPHS.

August 31; wins for each team: Cubs 71, Giants 70, Dbacks 69, Reds 69, Marlins 67.

October 1; wins for each team: Cubs 83, Giants 79, Dbacks 84, Reds 82, Marlins 84.

Figure 2. FANGRAPHS data.

 The 6 National league playoff teams. In the image to the left (Figure 2), it can be seen that the Dbacks (ARZ) and the Marlins (MIA) were the last two National league teams to secure places in the playoffs in 2023. At the start of the year, the Dbacks were given only a 15% chance of making the playoffs compared to a 40% chance for the Giants. However, in September, the Giants had 9 wins and 18 losses. The Dbacks and Giants played two games against each-other in September (on the 18th and 19th) which the Dbacks won (pink circles in Figure 1), the final nail in the coffin of the Giants, leaving them at only a 2% chance of making the playoffs on September 20th. As late in the season as August 4th, the Giants had an estimated 80% chance of making the playoffs and were ahead of both Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the race to the playoffs.

Off the top of this graph (Figure 2), the Braves (ATL) and the Dodgers (LAD) were at an estimated 100% probability of being in the playoffs since early in August. PHIladelphia and MILwaukee were the second two National league teams to comfortably secure places in the playoffs and I won't mention those "top 4" playoff teams again on this page, except to remind everyone that the Dbacks went on to defeat Milwaukee, Los Angeles and Philadelphia in the playoffs. 😊

Figure 3. The Giants were swept by San Diego
and Chicago at the start of September 2023.

At the start of September, the Dbacks had an estimated 44% chance of reaching the playoffs and they were trailing both San Francisco (59%) and the Cubs (74%). The Giants started September with a six game loosing streak (Figure 3) which sent them spiraling down to only a 22% chance of making the playoffs on September 7th.

At the same time, the Marlins began their September run into the playoffs by winning six games and moving ahead of the Dbacks in the race (see Figure 1).

Figure 4. Chicago showdown. Cubs lose 3 of 4.

Having just swept the Giants, the Cubs were at an estimated 92% chance of making the playoffs when they started a four game series (Figure 4) against the Dbacks (40%) on September 7th. In the game on the 8th of September, Gallen pitched a complete game shutout, giving up 3 hits and striking out 9 batters. Corbin Carol drove in the only run scored in the game.

Figure 5. Wild pitch.

On Saturday September 9th, the Dbacks won again, 3-2 in ten innings (video). The score was tied 1-1 at the end of 9 innings, after a solid start by Kelly (5.2 innings, 4 hits and 6K) and 3.1 scoreless innings of relief by Thompson, Saalfrank and Ginkel. 

The Dbacks won the game by scoring 2 runs in the 10th inning on 1) a Perdomo sacrifice bunt, 2) a Lawler hit by a pitch, 3) a passed ball by Gomes (Lawler to second base), 4) a wild pitch by Palencia (Figure 5) and 5) a Pham single. The Dbacks needed both runs because Sewald gave up a run in the bottom of the inning while getting the save. By the end of that game, the Dbacks chances of making the playoffs were above 50% for the first time in September of 2023 (see Figure 1, the first yellow highlighted series). The Cubs won the last game of the series, but some momentum had shifted towards the Dbacks in the race to the playoffs.

Figure 6. The Cubs lose 5 more games.

September 14th was a day off for the Cubs. Having just lost two games to the Rockies, they still had an estimated 81% chance of making the playoffs. By the end of that weekend (see Figure 1, the second yellow highlighted series), having been swept by the Dbacks (Figure 6), the Cubs were suddenly below a 50% probability of making the playoffs for the first time in September.

Figure 7. The Giants lose 3 games.

More importantly, after sweeping the Cubs that weekend, the Dbacks were now ahead of the Cubs, the Marlins, the Giants and the Reds in the race for the the final two wild card slots and the Dbacks would never relinquish that lead (see Figure 1). Also, on that weekend, the Marlins swept a 3 game series against Atlanta and the Giants lost 3 games to the Rockies (Figure 7).

Figure 8. The Reds lose 4 games.

As mentioned above, the final nail in the coffin of the Giants came on September 19th and 20th when the Dbacks took both games of a 2 game series. At the end of that short series, the Giants were at just a 2% chance of getting into the playoffs. At the same time, the Reds were losing games to the Twins and the Pirates (Figure 8) and their chances of making the playoffs went from 43% on September 18th to 7% on the 23rd.

Figure 9. Cubs lose five out of six games.

The Reds had 13 wins and 13 losses in September and could not keep up with the Dbacks (15W-12L) and the Marlins (17W-10L). The Cubs had 11 wins and 16 losses in September. The Cubs were knocked out of the playoff race when they were swept by Atlanta in the last week of the season (Figure 9), falling from a 58% estimated probability of making the playoffs on Sept. 25th to only a 4% chance on the 29th. The Marlins ended the season by winning 5 of the last 8 games (see Figure 1).

Figure 10. Dbacks win in 13 innings.

 13 Innings. The game between the Cubs and the Dbacks on September 16th (video) was very exciting and a source of frustration for the losing team. The final score was Dbacks 7, Cubs 6, but each team gave up 3 unearned runs. The Dbacks scored first with 2 runs in the 4th inning, then the Cubs took the lead in the 5th inning 3-2. The Dbacks tied the game at 3-3 in the 6th inning and that is how the score remained at the end of 9 innings. Both teams scored one run in their half of the 10th inning and the 11th inning, bringing the score to 5-5. The game finally ended in the 13th inning after the Cubs scored one run and the Dbacks walked it off with two runs in the bottom of the inning.

Figure 11. The winning run.

 The Beginning of the end. Baseball is called "a game of inches" and this game was won on a slide into home plate by Longoria who entered the game in the 13th inning as a pinch hitter with a 0.222 batting average. Longoria walked and then went to second base on an infield hit by Rivera. Longoria scored on a single by Moreno, sliding under the tag (see Figure 11). After that demoralizing loss, the Cubs stayed in the playoff race for another week, but after beating the Cubs one last time on the 17th, the Dbacks were ahead of the Cubs for the first time in September and they never again fell behind. While the Cubs were swept by Atlanta, the Dbacks won two games against the White Sox (see Figure 1) and then coasted into the playoffs.

Figure 12. Top 5 NL wild card contenders Aug. 31, 2024

 September 1, 2024. In Figure 1, I showed the September 2023 race for the last two National league wild card slots, a race in which the Marlins came from 4 games behind to knock the Cubs out of the playoffs. Figure 12 shows the start of the race for all three wild card slots after completion of all games in August and before play began in September 2024. 

Figure 13. Remaining schedule; Dbacks

I believe that the Padres are given a better chance to make the playoffs than the Dbacks (93.2% vs 88.5 %, see Figure 12) in part due to the difficulty of the remaining schedule for the Dbacks.  I've previously described the tough schedule for the Dbacks in the remaining games of the season. Going into September play, the Cubs are on a 5 game winning streak and the Dbacks have just lost 3 games in a row and the Mets just won 3 games in a row at the end of August. Let the fun begin!

Figure 14. Estimated odds of making the playoffs on September 1, 2024 with Atlanta and Philadelphia still tied at 2-2 in the 11th inning but other games completed (FANGRAPHS).

Figure 15. Dbacks 40 one run wins and losses through August (FANGRAPHS).

 

Next: the September 2024 wildcard race.