Dbacks in September 2024

Figure 1. Top 5 NL wild card contenders Aug. 31, 2024

In a previous blog page, I looked at how the Dbacks made the playoffs in 2023. In September 2023, the Marlins came from 4 games behind to knock the Cubs out of the playoffs. Below on this page is a similar analysis of the 2024 race for playoffs in the National league.

 September 1, 2024. Figure 1 shows the start of the race for all three wild card slots after completion of all games in August and before play began in September 2024 (Also See: 2024 amazing Dbacks summer).

Figure 2. Estimated odds of making the playoffs on September 1, 2024 with Atlanta and Philadelphia still tied at 2-2 in the 11th inning but other games completed (FANGRAPHS).

Figure 3. Dbacks 40 one run wins and losses through August (FANGRAPHS).

Figure 4. NL wildcard standings Sept. 8th (ESPN playoff odds).

 Heading into September 2024, the Dbacks cooled off at the end of August. In the second half of August, beginning with a sweep by Tampa, the Dbacks had 7 wins & 7 losses, including 4 1-run losses (Figure 3). The Mets ended August with 3 straight wins and they were 2 games behind Atlanta for the final wild card slot (Figure 1).

Pavin Smith grand slam, Sept. 8th

 In the first week of September, the Dbacks continued to play 0.500 baseball, getting 4 wins and 4 losses between September 1st and September 8th. In contrast, the Mets kept winning and their 9-game winning streak finally ended on September 8th with their first loss of September. The Mets moved into a tie with Atlanta for the third wildcard slot (see Figure 4), gaining in the standings on San Diego, the Dbacks and Atlanta (also see Fig. 5, below). Pavin Smith had a memorable 3 home run, 8 RBI game on September 8th in a 12-6 win against the Astros.

Figure 5. Wildcard probabilities estimated by FANGRAPHS. Mets 9 game win streak Aug. 29 - Sept.7th.

Figure 6. September 15th end of play (ESPN playoff odds).

 September 15th. After completion off all games on September 15th (see Figure 6), the wild card race in the National league has not changed much in the past week (compare to Figure 4). The Padres swept their weekend series against the Giants and widened their lead in the first wildcard position.

Sept. 15th Dbacks vs Brewers

The Dbacks continue to play 0.500 ball (5-5 in their last ten games) and FANGRAPHS is forecasting that they will end the season with 90 wins. They have 13 games remaining. Today's Dbacks game began with the Dbacks taking a 5-0 lead. The Brewers came back and led 5-8 in the 7th inning. The Dbacks tied the game 8-8 in the bottom of the 8th inning. The game went 10 innings with the Brewers leading 8-10 after the top of the 10th. The Dbacks scorred 3 more runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to win the game.

Figure 7. Wildcard probabilities estimated by FANGRAPHS. (September 15th)

Figure 8. September 22nd end of play (ESPN playoff odds).

 September 22nd. After completion off all games on September 22nd (see Figure 8), the Mets have caught the Dbacks in the wild card race of the National league. The Dbacks are again 5 wins and 5 losses in their last ten games and they have only 6 games still to play in the regular season. The Cubs have been eliminated from playoff contention.

Figure 9. Wildcard probabilities estimated by FANGRAPHS. (September 22nd)

Figure 10. September 26th end of play (ESPN playoff odds).

 September 27th, 2024. Before any games were played in the final weekend of the regular season and with 3 games remaining for the Dbacks, the wildcard standings are shown in Figure 10. Once again, the Dbacks are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Pavin Smith home run 9/25/2024.

 Having won 7 of their last 10 games, the Padres have clinched a wildcard spot (y, Figure 10). Three teams are still competing for the last two National league wild card slots: the Mets, the Dbacks and the Braves. The Mets and Braves have both one 6 of their last two games, gaining ground on the Dbacks. Both FanGraphs and ESPN are currently showing the Dbacks with the lowest probability of getting into the playoffs. In their game against the Giants on September 25th, Gallen got his 14th win of the season, giving up 2 hits and one run in six innings. Pavin Smith hit a towering 3-run home run into the pool in the 8th inning to put the game away. A. J. Puk continued his amazing relief work for the Dbacks, pitching a scoreless inning. So far with the Dbacks in 28 games played, Puk has given up 1 run in 26 innings for a 0.35 ERA.

Figure 11. Wildcard probabilities estimated by FANGRAPHS. (September 27th before play)

Figure 12. Playoff probabilities estimated by FANGRAPHS. Dbacks in 2023, Mets in 2024.

Figure 13. September 29th end of play (ESPN playoff odds)

 September 30th, 2024. When hurricane Helene passed through Georgia, two games between the Mets and the Braves were postponed until September 30th. Before the double header on the 30th, the wild card standing were as shown in Figure 13.

Figure 14. Wildcard probabilities estimated by FANGRAPHS. (September 30th before play)

Figure 15. Table: team leaders hitting.

The Dbacks were 5W and 5L in their last ten games of the regular season. In September, the Dbacks had 13 wins and 13 losses. In the final game of the regular season, Suarez got his 30th home run and ended the season with 101 RBI. Marte led the team with 6.9 WAR, a 0.932 OPS and 36 home runs. Gallen, with 14 wins, was the only Dbacks pitcher with more than 2.0 WAR. Carroll had 35 base steels, 14 triples, 73 walks and scored 121 runs. Perdomo had 3.4 WAR in just 98 games played. Team: 886 runs scored (best in MLB).

Figure 16. End of the regular season standings.

Figure 17. Dbacks last 7 games.

 September 30th 2024. The regular season ended with a double header between the Mets and the Braves. The Mets and Braves each one a game, causing the season to end in a three-way tie for the last two wildcard slots (Figure 16). Because both the Mets and the Braves had won more games during the season against the Dbacks, the Dbacks were eliminated.

Figure 18. Braves last 7 games.

Shown in Figure 17, the Dbacks only one two of their last seven regular season games and were shut out twice, once by the Giants and once by the Padres. The Dbacks game on September 22nd was a one run loss, in which the Dbacks had an 8-0 lead early in the game.

The Braves finished the season strong, winning 5 of their last 7 games (Figure 18). The Braves were only given a 38% chance of getting a wildcard slot at the end of play on September 21st. The Dbacks were at 93%.

Figure 19. September wildcard race, 2024.

The End.

Figure 20. Mets final 7 games.

The Dbacks went from having the highest estimated probability of getting a wildcard slot on September 21st to being eliminated at the end of September (Figure 19). The Mets lost 4 of their last seven games (Figure 20). As shown in Figure 16, based on runs scored and runs allowed, the Dbacks were expected to end the season with 90 wins, but they had 89 wins. Of the 4 teams that competed for the three NL wildcard positions, only the Dbacks had a losing record against above-0.500 teams.