Two Weeks in July

Figure 1. 2025 Dbacks season.

 This blog post is about the Dbacks in 2026, but first, for perspective, I take a quick look back at the past three seasons.

 The Way We Were. I've previously blogged about how the Dbacks made the playoffs in 2023, a year when they made an amazing run to the World Series. In 2023, the Dbacks had a great spring which propelled them to the playoffs.  I also previously blogged about the amazing summer for the Dbacks in 2024, a year during which they almost made the playoffs for the second year in a row, but failed to keep pace with the other wild card contenders in September. 

The Cabrera experiment.

 No Inspiration. The 2025 Dbacks were nothing to get excited about. The high point of the Dback's 2025 season was the beginning. At the start of the season, they were given a better than 50-50 chance of making the playoffs, but they did not really contend after April (see Figure 1). 

 Looking for Inspiration. Here in 2026, I've been inspired to blog again about the Dbacks by a surprising two weeks of baseball in July of 2026. On July 8th, the Dbacks lost their second game in a row to the Padres, a 10-4 loss in which Jose Cabrera made his 4th and final start in the big leagues for the Dbacks, ending the Cabrera experiment that ran from late June to early July. Cabrera had been brought up from Triple-A Reno after Nelson and Soroka both went on the injured list in June. We need to wonder how this Cabrera-in-the-majors experiment might have had a different ending if he had been given better run support by the generally woeful Dbacks offense in June and the first week of July 2026 (22nd out of 30 teams, 0.714 OPS).

Figure 2. End of the day July 8th, 2026.

At the end of play on July 8th, the Dbacks were two games under 0.500 and 5.5 games out of a wild card slot (see Figure 2).

The start of something good. On July 9th, Kelly won his second game in a row, going 7 innings and giving up only 3 hits and one run. However, the Phillies and Miami also won their games that day and so the Dbacks headed to Dodger stadium still 5.5 games out of a wild card slot with less than a month to the MLB trade deadline.

The first of 2 Tawa home runs against the Dodgers.

 Tawa Time. Tim Tawa was brought back from Triple-A Reno on July 5. Having gotten no hits in 7 plate appearances (July 5, 7 and 9) and batting just 0.155 on the season, Tawa got three hits including a home run and 4 RBIs to help the Dbacks to a 9-3 win over the Dodgers on July 10th. This was another win for Rodriguez in his stellar 2026 season.

If McCann can hit, can the Dbacks? On July 11th, Tawa got three more hits and 2 more RBIs to help the Dbacks to a 9-2 win. McCann had a two homer game with 4 RBIs. Pfaadt got his third win in a row after returning to the Dbacks MLB roster after pitching a stint in Reno during June.

Figure 3. End of day July 12th.

 Sweep. On July 12th, the Dbacks completed a sweep of the Dodgers, winning the game 5-3 with the help of another Tawa home run, sloppy play by the Dodgers and a great bullpen performance after Bratt gave up 3 runs in 3 innings for his second MLB start. The sweep was a great way to end things at the All-Star Game break, bringing them back to two games over 0.500 (see Figure 3).

After the All-Star Game break; Arizona went 5-2.

 Dbacks rise while Miami sinks. With Miami having lost their third game in a row and Arizona having won their last four games before the break, Arizona went into the All-Star Game break 2.5 games out of the third wild card slot, but with both the Cardinals and the Pirates still ahead of them in the standings (see Figure 3). 

 All-Star. Rodriguez pitched a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game. After the All-Star Game, the Dbacks won series against the Cardinals and Oakland and then on July 23rd they won another game against the Cardinals (a make-up rained-out game from June) to climb to 5 games over 0.500 and to hold on to the third wild card slot (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. National league wild card standings after games were played on July 23rd, 2026.

Figure 5. Upcoming games for the Dbacks.

 Notice in Figure 4 that after defeating the Cardinals on July 23rd, the Dbacks had won three games in a row and 9 of their past 11 games. Miami had lost nine games in a row to fall to 2 games behind the Dbacks in the race for the third wild card slot. Miami had also fallen behind the Pirates and the Cardinals in the standings.

 Underdogs. At the start of the 2026 season, FanGraphs estimated that the Pirates had about a 9% better chance of making the playoffs than the Dbacks. As of July 23rd, FanGraphs still estimated that the Pirates had a 7% greater chance of making the playoffs than did the Dbacks (see Figure 6) which includes a 2.3% chance that the pirates will win their division. I suspect that the Pirates were given better odds of making the playoffs than the Dbacks mainly because they had scored 51 more runs than their opponents while the Dbacks had only scored 1 more run than their opponents at that point in the 2026 season. 

A Special Two Weeks. How did the Dbacks improve their standing so much over their 11 games played from July 9th to July 23rd? They seem to have had the best team OPS during that time (0.873). 

Figure 6. Playoff odds on July 23rd, 2026. Race for the third wild card slot.

ESPN prediction for July 24th.

  What Next? As I write this on July 23rd, the Dbacks are one game into a ten game road trip with upcoming series against Washington and the Pirates (see Figure 5). Washington is just two games behind the Dbacks in the race for a wild card slot so I'm not sure why FanGraphs gives Washington only a 6.8% chance of making the playoffs. Washington has scored more runs than any other team this year and 100 more runs than the Dbacks. Since the Dbacks scored 25 runs in their past two games, maybe the game tomorrow will be an exciting game with many runs scored. Note: 12 hours after the screenshot that is shown to the right, the ESPN random number generator is now giving the Dbacks a 64.1% chance of winning the game. 

FanGraphs prediction for July 24th.

Figure 7. July 24th end of day wild card standings.

The title of this blog post ("Two Weeks in July") originally referred to the time from the start of a Dbacks 4 game winning streak on Thursday July 9th to Thursday July 23rd, a period that included 11 Dbacks games and the 4-day-long All-Star Game break. I was expecting a large number of runs to be scored on the 24th (see above), but the Dbacks beat Washington 3-2. That win over Washington, combined with losses by the Phillies, the Cardinals, the Pirates, Miami (see Figure 7) greatly improved the projected probability of the Dbacks making the playoffs (see Figure 8).

Figure 8. July 24th end of day playoff probabilities.

Figure 9. July 28th end of day wild card race.

Here on July 24th, the Dbacks are close to getting back to their season high 54% chance of reaching the playoffs that came back on May 27th after 13 straight games against the Giants and Colorado.

 July 28th update. The Dbacks have come back to Earth, now having won 6 of their last 10 games (see Figure 9). With seven National League teams all competing for the last two wild card slots, every game has a fun playoff atmosphere.

Figure 10. July 29th end of day wild card race.

 July 29th update. With the Dbacks now technically tied for the second wild card slot (see Figure 10) it is tempting to change the title of this blog post to "Three Weeks in July". However, the Dbacks only won 3 of the 6 games against Washington and the Pirates (see Figure 11).

Figure 11. Long road trip continues.

 Trade? With the trade deadline now fast approaching, the Dbacks have three more games on the road, but also a needed day off on July 30th, having just played 13 games in 13 days since the All-Star Game break. 

Figure 12. July 29th end of day playoff probabilities.

Figure 13. July 30th.

 Nine of Twelve. After having lost 12 games in a row, the Marlins turned around and swept Philadelphia. The Phillies, who have lost nine of 12 games after the All-Star break, are still given (by FanGraphs) a 70% chance of making the playoffs compared to just 44% for the Dbacks (see Figure 12), even though FanGraphs is currently projecting the Phillies to win just 3 more games than the Dbacks (86W vs 83W).

 Productive Day Off. On July 30th, the Pirates, Padres, Marlins, Cardinals and Nationals all lost their games (see Figure 14), which caused the playoff odds for the Dbacks to increase from 43.9% to 47.1 % (see Figure 13). Since July 8th, the Dbacks went from 2 games below 0.500 to 5 games above 0.500 and in the same time period the Cardinals went from 5 games above 0.500 to 1 game below 0.500. Thus, the Dbacks have helped themselves by winning games, but their rise is odds of reaching the playoffs has been helped by the Marlins, Cardinals and Phillies losing many games.

Figure 14. July 30th games. The Pirates, Padres, Marlins, Cardinals and Nationals all lost.

Figure 15. July 31st NL wild card standings.

 The End of July. The Dbacks won their last game in July 2026 while the Pirates, Padres, Cubs, Cardinals and Nationals all lost their games on July 31st (see Figure 15). Since July 8th (Figure 2) the Dbacks and the Padres are the only 2 teams contending for a wild card slot that have increased their winning percentage.

Figure 16. July 31st playoff odds.

 Playoff Odds. Since July 8th, the Dbacks playoff odds have increased from 11.8% to 52.2% (see Figure 16). Starting the season with only an estimated 36.4% chance of making the playoffs, it is easy to imagine that the Dbacks are currently enjoying some luck and they might regress during the last two months of the season. 

 End of July. FanGraphs is currently projecting the Dbacks to finish the regular season in the third wild card slot just one game behind the Phillies and two games ahead of the Pirates, with all the other wild card contenders even further behind. 

 Figure 17.

 First Week of August. At the end of play on August 7th, the Dbacks have recently split a 4 game series against the Padres (see Figure 18). The Padres have pulled ahead of the pirates in the race for a wild card slot (see Figure 17). 

Figure 18. Start August.

 The Phillies won 4 games in a row to start August and are now projected to finish the regular season with two more wins than the Dbacks (see Figure 17).   

Figure 19. Aug. 7th NL wild card standings.

 Cubs and Reds stay hot. The Reds have actually pulled ahead of the Prates in the standings (see Figure 19) but at three games below 0.500, they are projected by FanGraphs as having only a 7.7% chance of reaching the playoffs. 

The Nationals currently have the same record as the Pirates but they are projected as having only a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs. The August 7th 2026 playoff odds for the other teams in the wild card race are shown below in Figure 20.

Figure 20. August 7th playoff odds.

 New High. With the Pirates and the Nationals both having lost 8 of their last 10 games, the Dbacks have reached a season high projected 56.1% chance of reaching the playoffs (see Figure 20, above). The previous high of 54% came on May 27th after a series of games against the Rockies and Giants.

UNDER CONSTRUCTION