Two Weeks in July

Figure 0. 2025 Dbacks season.

 This blog post is about the Dbacks in 2026, but first, for perspective, I take a quick look back at the past three seasons.

 The Way We Were. I've previously blogged about how the Dbacks made the playoffs in 2023, a year when they made an amazing run to the World Series. In 2023, the Dbacks had a great spring which propelled them to the playoffs.  I also previously blogged about the amazing summer for the Dbacks in 2024, a year during which they almost made the playoffs for the second year in a row, but failed to keep pace with the other wild card contenders in September. 

Figure 1. The Cabrera experiment 2026.

 No Inspiration. The 2025 Dbacks were nothing to get excited about. The high point of the Dback's 2025 season was the beginning. At the start of the season, they were given a better than 50-50 chance of making the playoffs, but they did not really contend after April (see Figure 0). 

 Looking for Inspiration. Here in 2026, I've been inspired to blog again about the Dbacks by a surprising two weeks of baseball in July of 2026. On July 8th, the Dbacks lost their second game in a row to the Padres, a 10-4 loss in which Jose Cabrera made his 4th start in the big leagues for the Dbacks. Cabrera had been brought up from Triple-A Reno after Nelson and Soroka both went on the injured list in June. We need to wonder how this Cabrera-in-the-majors experiment might have had a different ending if he had been given better run support by the generally woeful Dbacks offense in June and the first week of July 2026 (22nd out of 30 teams, 0.714 OPS).

Figure 2. End of the day July 8th, 2026.

At the end of play on July 8th, the Dbacks were two games under 0.500 and 5.5 games out of a wild card slot (see Figure 2).

The start of something good. On July 9th, Kelly won his second game in a row, going 7 innings and giving up only 3 hits and one run. However, the Phillies and Miami also won their games that day and so the Dbacks headed to Dodger stadium still 5.5 games out of a wild card slot with less than a month to the MLB trade deadline.

The first of 2 Tawa home runs against the Dodgers.

 Tawa Time. Tim Tawa was brought back from Triple-A Reno on July 5. Having gotten no hits in 7 plate appearances (July 5, 7 and 9) and batting just 0.155 on the season, Tawa got three hits including a home run and 4 RBIs to help the Dbacks to a 9-3 win over the Dodgers on July 10th. This was another win for Rodriguez in his stellar 2026 season.

If McCann can hit, can the Dbacks? On July 11th, Tawa got three more hits and 2 more RBIs to help the Dbacks to a 9-2 win. McCann had a two homer game with 4 RBIs. Pfaadt got his third win in a row after returning to the Dbacks MLB roster after pitching a stint in Reno during June.

Figure 3. End of day July 12th.

 Sweep. On July 12th, the Dbacks completed a sweep of the Dodgers, winning the game 5-3 with the help of another Tawa home run, sloppy play by the Dodgers and a great bullpen performance after Bratt gave up 3 runs in 3 innings for his second MLB start. The sweep was a great way to end things at the All-Star Game break, bringing them back to two games over 0.500 (see Figure 3).

After the All-Star Game break; Arizona went 5-2.

 Dbacks rise while Miami sinks. With Miami having lost their third game in a row and Arizona having won their last four games before the break, Arizona went into the All-Star Game break 2.5 games out of the third wild card slot, but with both the Cardinals and the Pirates still ahead of them in the standings (see Figure 3). 

 All-Star. Rodriguez pitched a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game. After the All-Star Game, the Dbacks won series against the Cardinals and Oakland and then on July 23rd they won another game against the Cardinals (a make-up rained-out game from June) to climb to 5 games over 0.500 and to hold on to the third wild card slot (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. National league wild card standings after games were played on July 23rd, 2026.

Figure 5. Upcoming games for the Dbacks.

 Notice in Figure 4 that after defeating the Cardinals on July 23rd, the Dbacks had won three games in a row and 9 of their past 11 games. Miami had lost nine games in a row to fall to 2 games behind the Dbacks in the race for the third wild card slot. Miami had also fallen behind the Pirates and the Cardinals in the standings.

 Underdogs. At the start of the 2026 season, FanGraphs estimated that the Pirates had about a 9% better chance of making the playoffs than the Dbacks. As of July 23rd, FanGraphs still estimated that the Pirates had a 7% greater chance of making the playoffs than did the Dbacks (see Figure 6) which includes a 2.3% chance that the pirates will win their division. I suspect that the Pirates were given better odds of making the playoffs than the Dbacks mainly because they had scored 51 more runs than their opponents while the Dbacks had only scored 1 more run than their opponents at that point in the 2026 season. 

A Special Two Weeks. How did the Dbacks improve their standing so much over their 11 games played from July 9th to July 23rd? They seem to have had the best team OPS during that time (0.873). 

Figure 6. Playoff odds on July 23rd, 2026. Race for the third wild card slot.

ESPN prediction for July 24th.

  What Next? As I write this on July 23rd, the Dbacks are one game into a ten game road trip with upcoming series against Washington and the Pirates (see Figure 5). Washington is just two games behind the Dbacks in the race for a wild card slot so I'm not sure why FanGraphs gives Washington only a 6.8% chance of making the playoffs. Washington has scored more runs than any other team this year and 100 more runs than the Dbacks. Since the Dbacks scored 25 runs in their past two games, maybe the game tomorrow will be an exciting game with many runs scored. Note: 12 hours after the screenshot that is shown to the right, the ESPN random number generator is now giving the Dbacks a 64.1% chance of winning the game. 

FanGraphs prediction for July 24th.

Figure 7. July 24th end of day wild card standings.

The title of this blog post ("Two Weeks in July") originally referred to the time from the start of a Dbacks 4 game winning streak on Thursday July 9th to Thursday July 23rd, a period that included 11 Dbacks games and the 4-day-long All-Star Game break. I was expecting a large number of runs to be scored on the 24th (see above), but the Dbacks beat Washington 3-2. That win over Washington, combined with losses by the Phillies, the Cardinals, the Pirates, Miami (see Figure 7) greatly improved the projected probability of the Dbacks making the playoffs (see Figure 8).

Figure 8. July 24th end of day playoff probabilities.

Figure 9. July 28th end of day wild card race.

Here on July 24th, the Dbacks are close to getting back to their season high 54% chance of reaching the playoffs that came back on May 27th after 13 straight games against the Giants and Colorado.

 July 28th update. The Dbacks have come back to Earth, now having won 6 of their last 10 games (see Figure 9). With seven National League teams all competing for the last two wild card slots, every game has a fun playoff atmosphere.

Figure 10. July 29th end of day wild card race.

 July 29th update. With the Dbacks now technically tied for the second wild card slot (see Figure 10) it is tempting to change the title of this blog post to "Three Weeks in July". However, the Dbacks only won 3 of the 6 games against Washington and the Pirates (see Figure 11).

Figure 11. Long road trip continues.

 Trade? With the trade deadline now fast approaching, the Dbacks have three more games on the road, but also a needed day off on July 30th, having just played 13 games in 13 days since the All-Star Game break. 

Figure 12. July 29th end of day playoff probabilities.

Figure 13. July 30th.

 Nine of Twelve. After having lost 12 games in a row, the Marlins turned around and swept Philadelphia. The Phillies, who have lost nine of 12 games after the All-Star break, are still given (by FanGraphs) a 70% chance of making the playoffs compared to just 44% for the Dbacks (see Figure 12), even though FanGraphs is currently projecting the Phillies to win just 3 more games than the Dbacks (86W vs 83W).

 Productive Day Off. On July 30th, the Pirates, Padres, Marlins, Cardinals and Nationals all lost their games (see Figure 14), which caused the playoff odds for the Dbacks to increase from 43.9% to 47.1 % (see Figure 13). Since July 8th, the Dbacks went from 2 games below 0.500 to 5 games above 0.500 and in the same time period the Cardinals went from 5 games above 0.500 to 1 game below 0.500. Thus, the Dbacks have helped themselves by winning games, but their rise is odds of reaching the playoffs has been helped by the Marlins, Cardinals and Phillies losing many games.

Figure 14. July 30th games. The Pirates, Padres, Marlins, Cardinals and Nationals all lost.

Figure 15. July 31st NL wild card standings.

 The End of July. The Dbacks won their last game in July 2026 while the Pirates, Padres, Cubs, Cardinals and Nationals all lost their games on July 31st (see Figure 15). Since July 8th (Figure 2) the Dbacks and the Padres are the only 2 teams contending for a wild card slot that have increased their winning percentage.

Figure 16. July 31st playoff odds.

 Playoff Odds. Since July 8th, the Dbacks playoff odds have increased from 11.8% to 52.2% (see Figure 16). Starting the season with only an estimated 36.4% chance of making the playoffs, it is easy to imagine that the Dbacks are currently enjoying some luck and they might regress during the last two months of the season. 

 End of July. FanGraphs is currently projecting the Dbacks to finish the regular season in the third wild card slot just one game behind the Phillies and two games ahead of the Pirates, with all the other wild card contenders even further behind. 

 Figure 17.

 First Week of August. At the end of play on August 7th, the Dbacks have recently split a 4 game series against the Padres (see Figure 18). The Padres have pulled ahead of the pirates in the race for a wild card slot (see Figure 17). 

Figure 18. Start August.

 The Phillies won 4 games in a row to start August and are now projected to finish the regular season with two more wins than the Dbacks (see Figure 17).   

Figure 19. Aug. 7th NL wild card standings.

 Cubs and Reds stay hot. The Reds have actually pulled ahead of the Prates in the standings (see Figure 19) but at three games below 0.500, they are projected by FanGraphs as having only a 7.7% chance of reaching the playoffs. 

The Nationals currently have the same record as the Pirates but they are projected as having only a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs. The August 7th 2026 playoff odds for the other teams in the wild card race are shown below in Figure 20.

Figure 20. August 7th playoff odds.

 New High. With the Pirates and the Nationals both having lost 8 of their last 10 games, the Dbacks have reached a season high projected 56.1% chance of reaching the playoffs (see Figure 20, above). The previous high of 54% came on May 27th after a series of games against the Rockies and Giants.

Figure 21. Aug. 30th playoff odds.

End of August
 During August, the race for the third Nation League playoff position became a two-way race between Arizona and the Padres (see Figure 21).

Figure 22. Aug. 30th wildcard race.

However, Miami is only 3.5 games behind Arizona going into play on August 31st (see Figure 22). Back on July 9th, it looked like a three-way race between Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Miami and those teams could still have a good September.

Figure 23. Sept. 24th wildcard race.

 September 25th. At the end of July (see Figure 15, above) the Dbacks were one game ahead of the Phillies. Now, going into the final 3 games of the season, the Phillies are two games ahead of the Dbacks. Before the start of game play, ESPN and FanGraphs both calculate that the Dbacks have a 10.8% chance of passing the Phillies and grabbing the third and final National League wild card slot. From September 2nd to September 24th the Padres had only 3 losses while earning 16 wins and they went from a 39% chance of making the playoffs to 100%.

Figure 24. Sept. 24th projected wins.

Figure 25. Sept. 26th before games played.

 Since the final two National League teams competing for a place in the playoffs are the Dbacks and the Phillies, in some sense it seems compelling to look back at the season-long trajectories of the Dbacks and the Phillies (Figure 24, above). At the start of the season, FanGraphs projected that the Phillies would get 5 more wins than the Dbacks. Here on Sept. 25 before any games are played, FanGraphs is projecting that the Phillies will end the regular season with two more wins than the Dbacks and the Phillies ending up having two more wins than what was projected at the start of the season (for a total of 89 wins).

Figure 26. Two rain delays on Sept. 26th.

On September 25th, the Padres, Cubs and Phillies all lost (see Figure 25, above). The Cubs lost two games and the Dbacks beat the Padres. For the first time in 2026 the Dbacks have won six games in a row and they are now 12 games over 0.500. Early on Sept. 26th, before game play, the Dbacks were estimated to have a 31.5% (ESPN)/ 32.4% (FanGraphs) chance of reaching the playoffs. 

As shown in Figure 26, a blocking high pressure ridge caused trouble for the two remaining MLB playoff races. Rain delayed the starts of the games in Minneapolis and Philadelphia. The Rangers and the Astros are competing for their division. The final Cubs game of the season was moved from Boston to Florida.

Figure 27. Winning streak.

 One Week in September.  While waiting for the Dbacks and Phillies games to be played on Sept. 26th, I took a look back at the only 6 game winning streak of the Dbacks in 2026 (see Figure 27).

The winning streak began with a 9th inning walk-off victory (win 81) over the Yankees which started with four scoreless innings pitched by Schlittler and Pfaadt. A good fielding play by Marte helped keep the Yankees from scoring in the top of the third inning.

Figure 28. Marte fielding, Moreno fielding, Martinez relief pitching, Lawler triple.

Figure 28. Walk-off home run by Smith.

 Pfaadt gave up a run in the 5th inning, but a great fielding play by Moreno on a bunt and the arrival of Martinez from the bullpen limited the damage (see Figure 28, above). The Dbacks took the lead in the bottom of the 5th on a triple run by Lawler. With the help of a Yankees error and two unearned runs, a two run home run by pinch hitter Smith won the game for the Dbacks in the 9th inning. 

 All hands on deck. This Dbacks win included contributions from the unlikely trio of (1) Marte (who did not play from Aug. 7th to 31st), (2) Martinez (returned from arm surgery on Aug. 17th) and (3) Pavin Smith (started the season with an elbow injury, batted 0.141 in 28 June/July games, was designated for assignment but cleared waivers went to Triple-A Reno, then was recalled to MLB on Sept. 12th).

Figure 29. Arenado home run 27.

The Sunday Sept. 20th game (see Figure 27) started with a first inning run on three singles (Nootbaar, Marte, Perdomo), but after a 4 run top of the 4th inning, the Dbacks trailed 4-1 until the bottom of the 5th inning. Arenado hit a grand slam (his 27th home run in 2026) that was particularly dramatic because the previous pitch was hit home run distance, but just foul. 

Dbacks WAR leaders (position players).

The Dbacks bullpen locked down the second win in a row over the Yankees (Martinez got his third win of his short season). There were two more add-on runs scored in the 7th inning (on consecutive hits by Arizona's the WAR leaders (see the image to the left): a Moreno single, a Perdomo triple, a Carroll single. This was the final home game for the Diamondbacks before starting the final road trip (3 games in Colorado and 3 games in San Diego).

Figure 30. Arenado home run number 30.

The Diamondbacks swept Colorado and never trailed in the three game series. The Dbacks scored 3, 4, and 6 runs in the top half of the first innings of the three games. Arenado got his 28th and 29th home runs of the season in Denver.

In the first game of the series in San Diego (see Figure 27) started with three Dbacks runs in the first inning, which set a Dbacks record for four consecutive games with at least three runs scored in the first inning of each game. Nootbaar hit the first pitch of the game for a home run. Other home runs for the Dbacks were by Lawler and Arenado, his 30th of the year, making 2026 the 8th season for Arenado with 30 or more home runs. Pfaadt pitched into the 8th inning and got the win (his 8th this year, win 86 for the Dbacks), setting up the Dbacks with a rested bullpen for a bullpen game on the following day (Sept. 26th).

Figure 31. A bullpen game (Sept. 26th).

The September 26th bullpen game was a grind, with the Dbacks falling behind in the first inning (1 - 0), tying the score in the second (1 - 1) and taking a lead in the top of third inning (1 - 2) only to give back the lead in the bottom of the third (3 - 2). McCann hit a home run in the top of the 4th inning to give the Dbacks their last lead of the game (3 - 4). In the bottom of the 4th, Cabrera entered the game and gave up a three run blast to Machado and San Diego remained in the lead the rest of the game. Cabrera stayed in the game in the 5th inning and gave up another home run and two more runs in that inning. Cabrera ended up throwing 25% of the Dbacks pitches in the game and half of the runs. Neither of the two home run pitches thrown by Cabrera were horrible, so I'm willing to say that he was confronted by good San Diego hitting.

Figure 32. Cabrera's season.

Given the pitching outcomes shown above in Figure 1, it might seem mysterious that Cabrera was the player brought onto the Dbacks roster after it was decided that Burns was injured and would not start the Sept. 26th game. As shown in Figure 32, Cabrera had pitched twice in relief earlier in September for a total of five scoreless innings in two games that were won by the Dbacks.

Also, I have to wonder why two starting pitchers, Nelson and Gallen, were used in relief in the previous game rather that being used in the Sept. 26th game.

Entering the final game of the regular season on Sept. 27th, the Dbacks needed to win and the Phillies needed to loose their 5th straight game in order for the Dbacks to make the playoffs. That did not happen. One week into October, the Cubs, Phillies and Padres had all been eliminated from the playoffs, making it feel like it might have been a good thing for the Dbacks to not participate in the playoffs this year.